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                                【能源】供需兩旺 天然氣行業保持高景氣度

                                時間:2018-03-21   來源:中國經濟網  作者:  字號:小中大

                                在大力推進生態文明、建設美麗中國的政策引導下,近兩年“油減氣增”的能源結構愈發明顯。國家統計局3月19日發布的數據顯示,2017年,原油產量19151萬噸,比上年下降4.1%,降幅較上年收窄2.8個百分點。2017年,天然氣產量1480.3億立方米,比上年增長8.2%,增速較上年加快6.5個百分點;與2012年相比,年均增長6.0%。

                                受上述消息面提振,昨日天然氣板塊表現突出,板塊整體上漲1.79%,位居大智慧概念板塊漲幅榜前列。板塊內貴州燃氣、佛燃股份等兩只次新股強勢漲停,新疆火炬(6.93%)、中曼石油(4.99%)、中國石化(3.64%)、皖天然氣(3.50%)和深冷股份(3.37%)等5只個股昨日漲幅也均超3%。

                                對此,興業證券表示,天然氣行業呈現供需兩旺的狀態。當前原油價格下,國內油田開采成本高、競爭力弱,增產動力低。而天然氣作為清潔能源被大力推廣使用,且利潤空間可觀,刺激了國內天然氣產量的持續增長。我國天然氣市場正處于黃金發展期,預計2018年天然氣開采、進口、運輸及銷售等環節仍將保持高景氣狀態。

                                在國家政策的大力鼓勵與支持下,天然氣需求量有望呈現穩步增長態勢。2017年6月份國家發改委印發的《加快推進天然氣利用的意見》提出,到2020年天然氣在一次能源消費結構中的占比力爭達到10%,逐步將天然氣培育成為我國現代能源體系的主體能源。國家能源局印發的《2018年能源工作指導意見》也指出,2018年天然氣消費比重提高到7.5%左右。

                                需求端的旺盛,也刺激供給端市場日益增多。龍頭公司中國石化經營數據也有所體現。2017年中石化油氣產量為4.56億桶,同比增長3.37%。其中原油產量同比下降3.25%,天然氣產量同比增加19.11%。這已經是中石化連續第三年出現“油減氣增”的情況。

                                       值得一提的是,除供需兩旺給行業帶來的高景氣度外,天然氣價格改革持續推進也是板塊另一重要利好。光大證券表示,當前天然氣價格改革的背景下,傳統的中游管輸和下游配氣業務將為燃氣行業上市公司帶來穩定的盈利水平。

                                 

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